Airbnb forcing you out?

If you buy a house in the beach area, what do you expect?

San Diego has wisely made it easier to build granny flats. This is the Leucadian model by Crest Backyard Homes.
  • San Diego has wisely made it easier to build granny flats. This is the Leucadian model by Crest Backyard Homes.
  • Photo from crestbackyardhomes.com

It must be the noise — not higher rents and home prices — that people feel most strongly about.

I am referring to public indignation about short-term vacation-housing rentals — Airbnb and the like. People scream to the city council about the constant stream of new neighbors renting the house next door for days or a few weeks, particularly in the summer tourist season. Some short-term renters hold all-night parties.

So, the neighbors go to the city council for relief. A battle rages. San Diego’s council tackled the problem late last year, and there still has been no action, because many people say their ability to rent out their homes or granny flats short-term helps pay the mortgage. “That’s why the city council has struggled with this issue — there are genuine upsides that work against the argument of a disruption in the community,” says Gary London of London Moeder Advisors. Plus the municipality rakes in tax income from companies such as Airbnb that connect people looking to rent out their homes, or part of them, to those looking for a short-term vacation spot that isn’t as busy or cold as a hotel.

By renting out a home or granny flat part of the year, “Families that might not have been previously able to afford a house” may be able to do so with the additional income from short-term vacation rentals, says London. Last year’s move by city officials to speed up the construction of granny flats was very intelligent strategy, says London. What’s more, the noise complaints, which he believes are exaggerated, “can be mitigated,” he says. (One can always call the cops.)

One economist, asking not to be named, says, “The chorus of complaints largely comes from the beach areas” where millennials (aged 18 to 34) huddle, sometimes raucously. “If you buy a house in the beach area, what do you expect?”

Economists almost unanimously tell me that in a metro area the size of San Diego County, short-term vacation rentals don’t drive up home prices or rents significantly and don’t harm the hotel industry. Nationwide, “the impact [on housing prices, rents, and hotels] from the Airbnbs is a small drop in the bucket,” says Skylar Olsen, senior economist for Zillow.com. In December of 2016, Zillow polled economists on the topic. Only 5.1 percent of housing experts believed that the ability to rent entire homes for short periods would have a meaningful, large impact on the supply and affordability of longer-term rentals.

Last year, three academic economists did a study of Airbnb’s effect on home prices and rents in 100 zip codes around the United States. Result: for every 10 percent growth in Airbnb listings, rents rose 0.42 percent and home prices 0.76 percent. The authors admitted that these were hardly earth-shaking increases.

To be sure, smaller metro areas that depend heavily on tourism are in a bind. Arizona State University did a study on Ketchum, Idaho, which is near Sun Valley and is a haven for hiking, fishing, trail-riding, and other activities, along with skiing. (Gary Cooper and Ernest Hemingway vacationed there, and Hemingway committed suicide in that location.) The Arizona State study concluded that short-term rentals pushed up home prices, driving out residents. The population dropped from 3003 in the 2000 census to 2689 in 2010. Similarly, towns around Lake Tahoe complain bitterly. Only 35 percent of homes in skiing haven Truckee are available for permanent residents. The rest of the homes are often vacant.

In a study, Sonoma County concluded that excessive short-term rentals created a problem. After the fire that swept the area last fall, the county’s board of supervisors slapped a 45-day moratorium on new vacation rentals to facilitate housing for those displaced by the fire.

Tourism is big in San Diego, but it’s not dominant. Kelly Cunningham of the San Diego Institute for Economic Research says that although many experts say tourism is San Diego’s third-largest industry, he would put it fourth behind technology, defense/military, and real estate. “Real estate is the reason for the city existing,” he says. He, too, believes that short-term rentals “are a small factor in housing affordability and rents.”

Last December, Alan Nevin of Xpera Group published a study focusing on the economic impact of short-term rentals in San Diego. The study was done for HomeAway, a vacation-rental marketplace, and Expedia, a travel-booking website. “We are talking at most about [short-term rentals being] 1 percent of the city’s housing units,” says Nevin. The effect of short-term rentals on housing and rents “is absolutely insignificant,” he says. Those rentals may make a dent in hotels and motels of a mere 0.1 percent.

His study points out that renter-occupied housing in San Diego “is typically bound by leases that prohibit subletting,” although some people cheat and secretly rent out their apartments when on vacation. There are bars to short-term renting in professionally managed condo projects and in higher-quality master-planned communities, too.

The direct and indirect effect for the city of short-term rentals was $500 million and 3000 jobs last year, says Nevin. The business generated $700,000 in tax revenue for the city.

Nevin says that, overwhelmingly, the short-term rental industry is based near the water — such as Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach, and La Jolla. The average daily rate in San Diego is $163, says AirDNA, which provides data on the short-term rental industry. The growth rate is 44 percent a year, and that frightens some San Diegans. Short-term rentals may make a small dent now, but if they keep growing at a big rate, they could push up rents and housing prices, driving even more people out of the county. (Economists point out, however, that the 44 percent is coming from a small base. The growth percentage will decrease as the numbers get larger.)

Mikaela Sharp of Irvine’s John Burns Real Estate Consulting says she hasn’t made a study of the topic, “but in my opinion more short-term rentals will increase rents because it causes a decrease in the supply of spaces available for long-term rentals.” But, says Sharp, she is not sure of the magnitude of the effect. One reason: “Renting out a property short-term on Airbnb is much more work than a long-term rental.” It involves, for example, much more cleaning.

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While I don't want to come across as having a "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up" attitude, my sense is that short-term rentals are far more significant than these experts conclude. Reading your posting, it appears that much of the data is based their opinions and not so much on research.

The study by Nevin states that such rentals bring in $500 million a year to the city. That's a lotta dough, folks! And the city gets $700 K from them in taxes. Plus they support 3,000 jobs. Put that all together, and it is most significant, but they then opine that it isn't affecting real estate prices much. Something doesn't follow there.

It is amusing that Nevin claims that there are bars to short-term rentals in apartment leases and in condos and master planned communities, although "some people cheat." My limited experience with short-term rentals in San Francisco and Santa Barbara was that almost all of the hosts were cheating in that way. Inasmuch as zoning should prevent short-term rentals and does not, the whole concept involves cheating to some degree.

Markets operate at the margin, and if it is lucrative to own a property that can be rented out most nights, it makes that property worth more than as a residence for a single family or small household. Push up the price of desirable homes near water, and it ripples through the housing market and affects all home prices. If Airbnb and the others are only getting started, the effects will become more obvious as time passes. Time will tell.

Visduh: That $500 million sounds high, but it is both direct and indirect, using the multiplier effect. You may be right that more people cheat than is recognized. Best, Don Bauder

In Asheville, NC, they advertise the law on the radio. "If you don't stay there, they don't stay there." The ad concludes, "If you don't understand this, you can call this number..."

This simple strategy eludes San Diego. The problem of people being able to afford their house payments is solved.

nostalgic: That makes economic sense. Others will pay to stay in your house while you are not there. That helps pay the mortgage. However, you have a lot of work to do to clean up the place after they leave. Better count the silverware, too. Best, Don Bauder

Well, you pay a cleaning fee, and the owner has your credit card number. Probably theft of property can be deducted, too.

dwbat: That's if you realize right away that something like a silver fork is missing. Best, Don Bauder

I doubt that these rental places use actual "silverware" these days. Didn't that go out with 8-track tapes and Rambler cars? If they happen to use silverplate utensils, they got them dirt cheap at thrift stores.

dwbat: I am an old fogey, I guess, but we have silver and so do several of our friends. We have antiques, too, including antique silver. But maybe we ARE antiques. Best, Don Bauder

And here I was worried that the evidence of my senses and that of my friends from all over the city were accurate.

But seriously, the one factor given shortest shrift is the most important: how much housing stock now put on the market is taken off by investors rather than homeowners.

STVRs are a symptom not the cause of the hollowing out of the middle class and the elimination of homeownership as a means for building individual equity.

Cassander: This is a huge problem in towns which get most of their income from tourism. The story cites a couple of those places, such as Truckee. There are serious housing shortages in these smaller tourist towns. However, San Diego County has a population of 3.3 million. However, it could be a problem in beach areas. Best, Don Bauder

The plan in Asheville is that these vacation rentals operate effectively as a B & B with an on- site host (not necessarily with the Breakfast part), along the British model. If the host can tolerate them, the neighbors are more likely to be able to. The theory is that noisy visitors will first be a problem for the owner, not the neighbors.

nostalgic: Such a plan can be used with Airbnb and its competitors. The owner can rent out part of the house. However, it is not compulsory to have the owner there, unlike in Asheville. Best, Don Bauder

I was only pointing out that it could be compulsory to have the owner there. Other places do, and it seems to work to provide the income stated as "needed" in the article, helping families who could not otherwise afford their own homes without Vacation Rental incomes.

nostalgic: Requiring that the owner be there is problematic, because the owner may be in New York or Saudi Arabia. You would have to write the rules so that the actual owner is required to have someone there. Best, Don Bauder

One reason that I come to the Reader to spout my ignorance is that I'm anonymous here.

People who give their information to Facebook, Twitter, Lyft, Uber and AirBnB are NOT anonymous. Their lives are documented and that info is shared far beyond those corporations. They build reputations that can effect their ability to find a job, rent a car, get a good insurance rate, buy a house, etc. They have no control over the information because it ends up in thousands of databases around the world. This scares me, but people seem to be willing to give up privacy for certain benefits.

So in this particular instance of AirBnB, participants and neighbors can benefit by the reputations that evolve. Renters who do not provide good service will be down-rated. Same with guests. Before making a deal, each participant can check the reputation of the other. Neighbor complaints will become part of the public record and influence future deals. The capitalist system and modern technology will solve most problems.

swell: You are far too modest. You don't spout ignorance. Your posts are almost always interesting. Best, Don Bauder

the capitalist system and modern technology will solve most problems? Anybody remember the Civil War? The steam engine was taking over the world and we still had 4 million people in chains. That was the planters solution to not having enough money. Worked out great for them. Not so much for the slaves.

shamus: Some countries abolished slavery without social disruption, much less a very bloody war. The economy of the South depended on slavery. That wasn't true in the North. One thing puzzles me. From everything I have read, the Rebel forces were fierce fighters -- much tougher than the soldiers of the North. I can't understand why. A small percentage of Southerners were slave owners. Best, Don Bauder

Don, Not quite sure why the Rebels were better fighters but you realize the reason a small percentage of Southerners owned slaves is that slave ownership was not a family affair in the South, plantations were corporations mostly owned by Europeans and managed by professionals. We tend to think of the South in it's post war state and forget that the wealth of the United States was created in the slave states and later invested in the North. That's why the Revolutionary War was primarily fought in the Southern states and Washington fought the second string. The United States was basically formed because England was ready to ban slavery but the corporations did not want to let it go. The South financed and mostly fought the war. Lafayette was protecting his investments.

That is the history not often told.

Swell, both sides tend not to post negative comments because retribution can be so devastating. Not sure how neighbors post on AirBnB. Not easy.

nostalgic: We post negative and positive views on a variety of topics. That's what we are here for. Best, Don Bauder

The modern capitalist system, and artists, will solve. Oscar not so white anymore.

shirleyberan: Explicate, please. Best, Don Bauder

OK, some form of socialism by natural selection.

shirleyberan: Trouble is, socialism doesn't work well in practice. That said, we have to reform capitalism. Best, Don Bauder

Nicole Sours Larson: I don't believe my sources are shills. To be sure, Nevin's study was done for Expedia and Homeaway, but I wouldn't call him a shill. London and Sharp have no dog in the hunt, as far as I know. I do respect Gin. Did he do the study for some organization?

It is not unusual for economists to come to different conclusions. Sometimes, the answer lies in who pays for a study. This is rampant in studies by so-called consultants, but not so much in studies by economists. Best, Don Bauder

Lot's of good info on this subject. As an AB&B owner and several long term coastal rental properties I clearly relate to it both ways, First you have to have a STVR friendly jurisdiction like Oceanside who welcomes them with open and enthusiastic arms. They relish the TOT.

Oceanside is a tourist driven city and is quickly transitioning into the Gateway of San Diego. Already many southbound visitors stop there instead of making that log jam trek down south on a Saturday and then back up on a Sunday.

Oceanside has just as many attractions as any other part of SD, great public transportation, lots of fantastic eateries and bars, some of the best surf on the Cali coast, etc. I live in Leucadia where we have long term rentals and have to say that its great to have good tenants that treat your investments as though they were there own because we treat them right and charge rents they can afford. We haven't lost a tenant in years and it's because we don't and won't rent gouge.

That stated, when it comes to our AB&B it's a whole new ball game. We run that as a business and we charge what the competitive environment will bear. When it comes to vacation homes tenants rarely if ever question rental rates. They just want the home for their vacation.

Likewise, when we travel we either use a Marriott property if available or AB&B's which aren't cheap. But when your in travel mode you gear up mentally for it and expect to pay a premium for lodging. Just my 3 cents worth.

SurferJohn1: Yours is one of the most bullish statements on Oceanside I have ever seen. Maybe that city is making a comeback. Best, Don Bauder

I may have been wrong in my comment that AB&B will work out the kinks and make everything wonderful for everyone. Reputations are important for such a service to overcome certain serious problems, but they don't solve everything.

According to this article https://news.slashdot.org/story/18/03/08/1537221/what-airbnb-did-to-new-york-city#comments problems remain, even in a large city: "Airbnb was raising rents and taking housing off the rental market. It was supercharging gentrification while discriminating against guests and hosts of color. And as commercial operators took over, it was transforming from a way to help homeowners occasionally rent out an extra room into a purveyor of creepy, makeshift hotels."

You'll find additional links and discussion at that site.

swell: New York is a helluva lot bigger than San Diego. if this story about New York is true, then one would have to question my sources, who don't believe that short term rentals are a problem in San Diego. Best,Don Bauder

If Mission Valley can be casually tossed to private enterprises it's a sad sad situation. Here on the bottom we have to scrape for any security, hoping it can be done before old age (and hide what we do have from greedy family). Many disconnected non-fortune hunters recycle for a living and sleep by the river at homeless camps. Okay till the bulldozers come through, and they're coming. I see people laying on the ground just about everywhere. Honest public servants and visionary artists can disrupt and reverse status quo when they act as catalysts for positive change with inclusion of something bigger than themselves. Is Divine. (I like what story telling sparks) What the teen kids are doing about NRA bully behavior is so heroic. Don - is "liberal" even a real thing? When do we get to be US again? Still here hoping we can, while kids are doing our job, only better. I'm getting back in the real estate game before you can't touch that.


I have made it my mission this year to begin working on and volunteering extensively with various homeless groups and organizations concerning homelessness issues currently plaguing San Diego County.

There are three types of homelessness. The first two are the chronically homeless i.e. drug addicts and mentally disturbed or both. The third, are those who just plain love living on the streets and there's nothing that will change their desire to do so. The first two need to be institutionalized. Unfortunately Cali did away with mental institutions and there's a dire shortage of free clinics and facilities that deal with drug addiction.

The others are the acutely homeless. Not so much because they want to live on the streets, however, due to some unforeseen circumstance they ended up there.

These are folks who through some misfortune i.e. loss of employment, or a business, loss of their home, divorce, death of a family member, just moved to the area and can't find work etc.. They don't want to be on the street and hopefully won't be for long.

Both elements of homelessness needs to be addressed. The first one requires an ongoing source of sanitary items i.e. toilet paper, paper towels, soap, toothbrush, tooth paste, small and large plastic waste bags, blankets, new pillows, sleeping bags just to keep personal hygiene at a par. This is the most dire and pressing concern for every member of every neighborhood and one of the main reasons for the outbreak of Hepatitis and other contagious illnesses.

the other element folks will need all the above post basic cookware and cutlery, plates, eating and food preparation utensils, bedding, new pillows only, bed frames, mirrors, dresser drawers, kitchen tables and chairs and misc items in order to start a home with.

Be happy to elaborate more on this subject anytime.

SurferJohn1: I never thought of it that way -- that there are three types of homelessness. The third type puzzles me: are there really that many homeless who love it? Best, Don Bauder

From the studying and research I've been up to my elbows in there are a certain percentage of chronically homeless who just plain love the whole homeless culture.

We as citizens of our community have a responsibility to our families and our neighborhoods to keep them as safe and healthy as possible. That's why I'm getting involved with this mission.

For the acutely homeless there are temporary shelters, organizations, halfway homes, etc, that will work with these folks (surprisingly many of them families) to get into some type of more permanent housing as meager as it might be at first. This will at least give them an opportunity for a fresh start and allow them to start rebuilding their lives

That's the reason we are organizing drop off locations for house hold goods and the most basic of necessities. I'd be happy to share some more with you on this subject anytime. It's a crisis that impacts each and every one of us and will only get worse unless folks rise to the occasion with some form of help.

SurferJohn1: Wouldn't a homeless person who loves being homeless be classified as one with mental problems? Best, Don Bauder

shirleyberan: I have never seen a time in my life when so-called "liberals" or "progressives" are so far distant from"conservatives" in ideology, personal tastes, media preferences, etc. If there were a geographic difference between progressives and conservatives, we would be on the brink of civil war. Best, Don Bauder

50 years ago, there were real estate firms that would handle vacation rentals, especially in Mission Beach. The rent was estimated at a summer week for the winter monthly rate. There were complaints. Only the names and dates change, not the details.

In Palm Springs, the summer and winter rates are reversed from here!

dwbat: That is not surprising. Best, Don Bauder

Psycholizard: Nothing new under the San Diego sun? Best, Don Bauder

Don - thanks for set up of next joke, this is still a civil war. I have recently become aware of OAN that broadcasts the most outrageous dogma, forget Fox. Love California Baby!

shirleyberan: I cannot forget Fox because I never watch it -- except when it is broadcasting a sports event. Best, Don Bauder

Not a come back Don because Oceanside never was what it is today and what it will be moving forward. A total rebranding is more like it. It's the opitomy of gentrification on steroids.

Truly the best place for real estate investing in all of San Diego County coming from a real estate broker, general and manufactured home contractor, manufactured home dealer, developer, property manager and investor. We only invest in Oceanside now both residential and/or commercial.

Already folks coming southbound are stoping and staying in Oceanside for all the right reasons. be it the great eateries, the multitude of hotels, timeshares, AB&B's and VRBO's. Plus it's some of the best surf anywhere.

SurferJohn1: I hope you don't have a job doing PR for Oceanside. Best, Don Bauder

Yes, especially since "opitomy" is not a word. ;-)

dwbat: If opitomy is not a word now, just wait. It will be. Best, Don Bauder

Probably so, since many people can't spell epitome!

dwbat: I can spell it: epppitomee. Best, Don Bauder

dwbat: You are not bad? Do you have the Olympian detachment to make that statement? Best, Don Bauder

I may be "batty" but I'm generally not a "baddy" (unless dog owners are leaving a pile of poo out in front of the building, and walking away).

dwbat: I think there is a distinction between someone who is a baddy and someone who is batty. To wit: if a baddy beats the bejesus out of someone, he is an evil dude, deserving public wrath. But if someone who is batty does the same thing, he gets off because of insanity. Best, Don Bauder

I'll tout Oceanside anytime I can Don. Why not? I'm heavily vested in the City and I wish it ultimate success and prosperity.

While I don't live in Oceanside, I do reside not far away. I can't ever imagine wanting to live in that city. Oh, and I worked in Oceanside a couple times. It needs all the help it can get, but with the various gang dominated neighborhoods, dysfunctional city council, third-rate police force, and general shortage of tax revenue producing businesses, it has a steep, high hill to climb. Maybe the rest of the county is getting so crowded and hard to access that Oceanside will benefit from the spillover, and parts will actually prosper.

Duh! Visduh. Not sure what city you call home but it must be the ultimate utopian sanctuary given your terse condemnation of Oceanside. Obviously you haven't ventured away from home much.

Sure I remember all too well the ole Hill Street XXX movie theaters, hookers, strip joints, drugs and thugs back in the day. But those days are long gone. In case you haven't noticed there's been some not so subtle improvements during the past couple of decades. Been down to the Pier Street District lately?

Do so enlighten me as to what nearby city you think is so much more superior than OS? I've been here for decades and have invested in several coastal communities yet I know not one that is squeaky clean.

Lastly, you may want to refrain from such harsh remarks. There's a lot of very upstanding business, property and homeowners who have made OS their home and would not take lightly to your very immature and inane comments.

I guess there's got to be a troll in every post in order to keep it interesting. However, I think this conversation is over for me. But do have a wonderful life in your utopian world.

I'm kinda guessing here, but Visduh might live in Vista. :-)

dwbat: You are correct. He lives in Vista. Best, Don Bauder

SurferJohn1: If you are vested in Oceanside, you are pumping up your own assets by touting the place. Best,Don Bauder

Visduh: This dysfunctional Oceanside that you describe is the one I have been hearing about for more than 40 years. Best, Don Bauder

SurferJohn1 - My dad was a veteran of the Korean War. So when I was getting a chemical dependency certificate (SDCC, 2003) I chose an internship with VVSD which at the time was an old motel turned recovery home called Vietnam Veterans of San Diego. First of it's kind in the country. As you probably know those veterans didn't hear, "Welcome back and Thank-you for your service". They waited for prosthetics but usually did life from a wheelchair when they had to. Their own government didn't give a care. But privately they got whatever help good people could provide to assist clean up, not enough beds. Still operating with many changes, now is Veterans Village. Over half of homeless are veterans, apparently lessened over the years but still too many. I intended to buy a small home in Old Town or near the area and provide beds, meals... but my husband had my money tied up. I'm native San Diegan and felt that older homes were undervalued compared to new multi-condo builds until the recession bubble 2008 but still can find foreclosures or sellers who don't correctly estimate. It will be a long time before the OB residents find out if they can get their groovy peace back. I'm going to stay ready to move and trade up and up. Been sitting too long.

shirleyberan: Our treatment of veterans is a scandal -- no doubt about that. Best, Don Bauder

And many beach area communities are high crime, probably because the young gravitate to play their (drinking or violent) games.

PB is #1 in crime, followed by North Park.

dwbat: Interesting. Do you have stats on that? Are the stats only for the city, or do they include the county? Best, Don Bauder

That was in city only. SDPD has the stats for the city neighborhoods. They update them regularly.

dwbat: Very interesting. I will have to check that out. Many thanks, Best, Don Bauder

shirleyberan: The beach areas provide police with lots of jobs, and possibly overtime. Best, Don Bauder

shirleyberan: Drunkenness increases crime. Best, Don Bauder

Point Loma had granny flats approved decades ago for single family parcels, for grandma to live in, etc. These are the same parcels that developers are now targeting to build multiple units where once only a single story family home resided.

My guess is that most "granny flats" in the US don't house that many grandmothers/grandfathers these days, when the homeowner can get good rent money instead.

dwbat: Gramma and Grampa play second fiddle again. Best, Don Bauder

Au contraire, Don & dwbat. As a designer and builder of Backyard Homes aka granny flats aka ADU's, I can tell you first hand that two of the primary motivations for my clientele are most importantly, aging in place, second, an affordable place for health and/or home care personnel. Many if not most of my clientele are very private folks and just want the extra room for family or health reasons.

That stated, there is a growing market and interest, now that the laws have changed, for both short and long term rental opportunities where conducive. However, if you read the new law 2017, SB 1069 and 2018 SB 831 you will clearly see that one of the driving forces behind them is for property/homeowners to subsidize their income and realize additional revenue on the very land beneath their feet.

Last I checked profit is not a dirty word in our still free enterprise system. Just sayin..........................

I was talking about granny flats throughout the country, NOT just what you build in SD County.

SurferJohn1: Apparently it would depend on where one lives in the county. Beach area granny flats would be less likely to be a nest for Gramma and Grampa. Best, Don Bauder

Julie Stalmer: Point Loma is not the only municipality that approved granny flats.They have become popular around the county, and are used for Airbnb. Best, Don Bauder

True. I've just talked to a lot of locals and it seemed that has been an issue when it comes to the tall suckers that have been going up lately.

Julie Stalmer: Thanks. I am not aware of controversy about tall granny flats. Best, Don Bauder

Do "tall granny flats" have high ceilings for grandmothers who are ex-basketball players?

dwbat: Yes. Seven-foot ceilings are sometimes inadequate for the ex-granny jocks. Best, Don Bauder

dwbat: It looks like she'll dunk'em, donut? Best, Don Bauder

Got any pix of those "tall suckers" Julie? I'd be curious to see them.

Alan Nevin: Your study was helpful, but several people believe it understates the spread of short term vacation rentals in San Diego. Best, Don Bauder

New Study at least 5% of housing in San Diego is off limits to locals (that is a conservative estimate according to experts)...

2nd homes? ARBNB?


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